Copper price forecasts lifted for 2026 but tariff “collapse” still on the table

AI desk brief

Copper eased from a three-week high after hotter US inflation revived the odds of a Fed hike this month and a preliminary deal at BHP’s Escondida trimmed the supply premium. COMEX December copper fell 0.8% to $6.6695/lb ($14,704/t) after trading as high as $6.7890, while LME three-month copper topped $14,700/t before easing to $14,532; LME inventories have now fallen for seven straight sessions to 229,650 tonnes.

The piece frames 2026 copper forecasts as increasingly split around the US tariff decision and the roughly 1.5-2.0 million tonnes of metal sitting in the US. Macquarie sees a 223,000-tonne surplus this year and says prices could “collapse” if tariffs are rejected and the arb unwinds, while BMO argues the US stockpile is largely a geographic redistribution that leaves prices fundamentally supported around $14,500-15,000/t; BMI sits between the two, with a 2027 price forecast of $12,900 and a wider deficit later in the decade.