‘From liabilities to goldmines’: refineries eye record profits from diesel shortage

AI desk brief

The IEA says the global diesel shortage will stretch into 2027, keeping fuel prices elevated and adding to inflation pressure even as refiners capture record margins. The article cites a 1m b/d drop in global diesel supply versus 2025 levels, while US fuel exports have surged to an all-time high of 1.9m b/d, helping offset Middle East refinery outages.

For metals, the key takeaway is the macro transmission: higher fuel costs are already raising goods prices, squeezing real incomes, and worsening the inflation backdrop. That is broadly supportive for gold as an inflation hedge, though the immediate market focus remains on energy margins and the knock-on effect on growth.