US inflation rose to 3.7% in September, figures show

AI desk brief

US inflation accelerated to 3.7% y/y in September, with core inflation also edging higher and monthly CPI up 0.6%, reinforcing a higher-for-longer rates backdrop after the Fed’s first hike since 2023. The report ties much of the price pressure to the Iran-linked energy shock, with gasoline still more than $1/gal above last year and diesel hitting a record high last month.

For metals, the immediate read is mildly bearish on the policy channel: sticky inflation keeps the Fed under pressure to maintain restrictive settings, supporting real yields and the dollar relative to gold and silver. The energy shock itself is supportive of inflation hedging demand, but the dominant near-term transmission is still tighter financial conditions.