Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Rejected at $4,160 as Hot CPI Keeps $4,117 Support in Focus - FXLeaders

AI desk brief

Gold is trading around $4,138 after rebounding from $4,075, but the rally has stalled at $4,159-$4,161 resistance. Near term, the setup is neutral-to-bearish while price remains below that band, with $4,117 the key support; a break lower would expose $4,075 and then $4,041, while a clean move above $4,160 opens $4,216.

The fundamental backdrop is mixed: hotter September CPI revived Fed-hike concerns and initially pressured gold, but falling Treasury yields, a softer dollar, and risk-off flows from a global tech selloff have helped the metal recover. Structural support remains strong from ETF demand, with physically backed gold ETFs up 67 tonnes in September, $10 billion of inflows, and holdings at a record 4,256 tonnes; geopolitical and Middle East energy risks are also cited as supportive.