[SMM Analysis] Silver Down Nearly 20% From Stage High: Why Are Solar Cell Prices Not Following? - Shanghai Metals Market

AI desk brief

Silver has pulled back sharply on macro headwinds: SMM says the #1 silver price fell from a peak of 16,889 yuan/kg ($2,513/kg) on Aug. 27 to 13,584 yuan/kg ($2,021/kg) on Oct. 15, a 19.6% drop, before a small rebound to 13,842 yuan/kg ($2,059/kg) on Oct. 16. COMEX silver dipped below $60/oz on Oct. 8 and hit $58.96/oz intraday, with the move tied to a hawkish Fed September minutes, a stronger dollar index above 102, and multi-year-high U.S. Treasury yields.

Downstream solar-cell costs have fallen, but not enough to force broad price cuts. SMM says TOPCon front-side fine-line silver paste fell 18.7% to 12,991 yuan/kg, cutting G12R silver-paste cost from 0.143 yuan/W to 0.116 yuan/W, while total M10 cell cost dropped 10.8% to 0.310 yuan/W; however, G12R prices held at 0.31 yuan/W, G12 rose to 0.2975 yuan/W, and M10 only drifted marginally lower. The report argues price resilience is being driven by tighter cell supply, with September output down 15.2% YoY, operating rates at 53.5%, and industry inventory down 31.68% from its mid-September high.