Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Eyes $4,216 Breakout Ahead of CPI - FXLeaders

AI desk brief

Gold is holding around $4,186/oz ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. CPI print, with softer Treasury yields and a weaker dollar providing near-term support. The key technical trigger is $4,216; a clean break above that level opens $4,272 and then $4,318, while failure to hold the $4,151-$4,165 support zone would weaken the short-term bullish setup.

The macro backdrop remains constructive but event-driven: the market is pricing only about a 19% chance of an October Fed hike, though odds of at least one additional hike by December are still near 85%, keeping policy risk alive. Structural demand is also supportive, with global gold ETFs adding about $10bn/67t to a record 4,256t, while China’s PBOC extended its gold-buying streak to 23 months; geopolitical तनाव in the Middle East adds a safe-haven bid.