‘Clear and present danger’: fuel prices could rise by 30c a litre across Australia under IMF scenario

AI desk brief

IMF scenario calls for Brent to surge to $US130/bbl if Middle East supply routes stay disrupted, which economists say could add about 30c/litre to Australian petrol and lift inflation by more than 1 percentage point versus current expectations. That would put fresh pressure on the RBA to consider further hikes, a setup that is typically bearish for gold/silver via higher yields if policy response dominates, but supportive if the oil shock weakens growth and keeps inflation sticky.

The article says unleaded prices on Australia’s east coast are already above $2.40/litre and could rise toward $2.70 under the IMF case. Barrenjoey sees inflation at 4.2% y/y in September and potentially as high as 4.5% late-2026 if oil prices track the shock scenario, though it notes the RBA may focus more on domestic capacity constraints than imported energy costs.