US’s Reagan-era economic promises return as Trump’s AI-fueled growth fantasy

AI desk brief

The article argues Trump’s AI-led growth narrative is unlikely to fix the US fiscal gap, while higher Treasury yields, larger deficits and weaker foreign central-bank buying are already pushing borrowing costs up. It says the 10-year yield has surged to its highest in almost a quarter century, more than a full percentage point above levels seen when Trump launched the Iran conflict, with inflation and supply concerns driving the move.

For metals, the key transmission is higher rates and worsening US fiscal credibility: interest payments are already 3.3% of GDP, the deficit is 6% of GDP and projected near 7% by 2033, and the CRFB says stabilizing debt would require implausibly strong growth. That backdrop is structurally supportive for gold if it keeps pressure on real yields and undermines confidence in US sovereign finances, though the article itself is bearish on the growth fantasy rather than explicitly on metals.