Gold price is $1,455 below its record: why traders still see $5,000 next - TradingView

AI desk brief

Gold slipped toward $4,140/oz, about 26% below its January record of $5,594.82, as traders awaited Fed minutes with markets pricing an 87% chance of another rate increase by December. The near-term headwind remains the 10-year Treasury yield around 5.3% and a firm dollar, which are raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

Despite the correction, the longer-term setup remains constructive: LBMA delegates still see gold at $5,013 over 12 months, Goldman Sachs targets $4,900 and JPMorgan $6,000. Structural demand is still intact, with WGC data showing central banks bought 39t in August, led by China, Poland and Uzbekistan, while physically backed gold ETFs drew $18bn in August, the second-largest monthly inflow on record and lifting holdings to 4,189t.