Shell refineries forecast to make double the profit from every barrel of fuel

AI desk brief

Shell said refining margins are set to jump to about $42 a barrel in Q3, nearly double Q2’s $24 and above the prior peak of roughly $28, as war-related refinery outages in the Middle East and Russia tighten global fuel supply. The article also points to record diesel premiums above $100/bbl versus crude, helping drive Shell’s Q2 profit to almost $10bn and lifting European gas prices sharply higher.

For precious metals, the key read-through is persistently higher energy costs and renewed supply shocks, which keep inflation risk elevated and can cap real yields if growth data soften. Shell also raised its gas production outlook to 740,000-780,000 boed from 570,000-630,000 boed, but the broader backdrop remains supportive for inflation hedges.