Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Holds $4,112 as Fed Pause Bets Rise, but $4,172 Caps Recovery - FXLeaders

AI desk brief

Gold is trading near $4,131/oz, supported by weak U.S. jobs data that has cut October Fed hike odds to 22% from about 70% a week ago, but upside remains capped by elevated Treasury yields and a firm dollar. Near-term bias is neutral-to-bearish while XAU/USD stays below $4,172-$4,191; support is $4,112, then $4,070 and $4,021.

The structural backdrop remains constructive, with central bank buying and record ETF holdings offsetting some of the macro drag. The article cites PBoC buying of 20.2t in August, the 22nd straight month of purchases, and says officials at the LBMA conference expect central bank buying to average about 720t annually through 2026, versus 317t pre-2022.