Where does the price of gold go from here? - theglobeandmail.com

AI desk brief

Gold is being pulled between still-high U.S. real yields and a softer Fed outlook after cooler inflation data: the article cites gold at US$4,181 after a 6% September decline, with the market-implied odds of an October Fed hike falling to 21% from 69% a week earlier. It also notes the 10-year Treasury around 5.3%, real yields near 3%, and the USD index at 102, all of which remain near-term headwinds unless rate-cut expectations firm further.

Bullish structural demand remains intact, with the World Gold Council reporting central banks bought 289 tonnes in Q2 (+62% YoY) and global gold ETFs adding 121 tonnes in August to a record 4,189 tonnes. The piece frames three paths: oil normalizes and gold can resume higher toward US$5,000; Brent stays US$100-120/bbl and the Fed keeps tightening, which is bearish; or fiscal/bond-market stress keeps long yields elevated and eventually supports gold. Analyst targets cited range from HSBC’s US$4,825 to Goldman’s US$5,400 by end-2027, with UBS also seeing US$5,000+ in 2027.