Crude oil exports from strait of Hormuz largely return to pre-war levels

AI desk brief

Hormuz oil flows have largely normalized to pre-war levels, but the supply picture remains uneven and still inflationary: Kpler says 16.5m bpd left the region in September, equal to the pre-war average excluding Iran, while roughly 40% of regional crude is now moving outside the strait versus 17% before the war. Brent briefly traded back above $100/bbl and closed the day up 3% at $101 as traders weighed the logistics recovery against persistent security risk and constrained refined-product supply.

The most material near-term risk for precious metals is the inflation impulse from elevated crude/diesel costs, which can support safe-haven demand even as it keeps pressure on real-rate expectations. Diesel remains the tightest product: less than 20% of pre-war refined-product volumes are moving through Hormuz, with the seven-day average at 677,000 bpd versus 3.6m pre-conflict.