Platinum Market Surplus Of 265 Koz Forecast For 2026 - Inventories Remain Critically Depleted Following Three Consecutive Years Of Significant Deficital - Hedge Fund Alpha

AI desk brief

WPIC now forecasts a 2026 platinum market surplus of 265 koz, driven mainly by H1 investment outflows tied to macro and geopolitical uncertainty; despite the surplus, above-ground stocks remain critically tight at just 3.4 months of demand cover by year-end 2026. The council also revised the 2025 deficit deeper to 1.44 Moz, underscoring that the market is still coming off three straight years of significant deficits.

For 2026, total demand is seen down 18% y/y to 7.089 Moz versus supply up 2% to 7.353 Moz, with recycling doing all of the supply growth. ETF outflows of 389 koz are forecast for the full year, bar/coin demand is expected to fall 22% to 313 koz, jewellery demand is set to drop 15% on weak China consumption and higher prices, while industrial demand is revised up 5% on AI-related glass and electrical use; automotive demand is still seen down 4% y/y amid weaker China/Europe offset partly by North America and India.