[SMM Analysis] A Snapshot of Zambia’s Gold Market: From Mine Output to Formal Trade - Shanghai Metals Market

AI desk brief

Zambia’s gold market remains fragmented and poorly measured: official 2024 production was 3,141.81 kg, up about 40% YoY from 2,237 kg in 2023, but government series disagree across every overlapping year since 2020. The article highlights a large 2023 customs mismatch versus the UAE, with Zambia reporting only US$3.06m of non-monetary gold exports while the UAE recorded US$1.788bn of imports attributed to Zambia; it does not prove smuggling, but it does underscore unresolved shipment-level reconciliation and possible leakage through undeclared trade or misclassification.

On the formalization side, Zambia Gold Company had bought just 13.9 kg from miners in Mumbwa and Rufunsa by end-June 2025, with another 3.65 kg reported in Q1 2026, while the government is considering cutting the 16% VAT on domestic gold transactions to encourage official buying. First Quantum’s Kansanshi mine produced about 105,000 oz in 2024 and 49,941 oz in H1 2026, below H1 2025’s 57,632 oz, with full-year 2026 guidance maintained at 110,000–120,000 oz.