Either Gold or the Market 'Wrong' About Fed Rate Forecasts - BullionVault

AI desk brief

Gold rebounded sharply, reversing most of this week’s $100 slide as crude oil fell and Treasury yields eased ahead of the Fed decision; spot gold hit $4,360/oz after Monday’s 5-week low at $4,254/oz. CME FedWatch shows a 93% chance of a hike today and the market is pricing another 25bp by year-end, but MKS Pamp’s Nicky Shiels argues real policy rates remain only barely positive versus 3.7% PCE inflation, leaving room for gold to challenge the rate path rather than the other way around.

Metals Focus said hawkish rate expectations have pressured investor interest, but central-bank buying in July-August has continued to support gold. Silver also bounced, peaking at $64.93/oz, while gold in euros reached €3,779 and UK gold touched about £3,240 ahead of the BoE decision.