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AI desk brief

Brent is holding above $100/bbl at $100.42, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz down to single digits as Middle East fighting escalates — a supportive inflation impulse for precious metals but also a risk-off backdrop. At the same time, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are still sitting at 4.8406% after hitting a three-year high on Wednesday, which is the bigger near-term headwind for gold and silver via real-rate pressure.

The ECB is widely expected to raise rates by 25bp at lunchtime, reinforcing the higher-for-longer rate narrative. Overall, the piece points to a mixed setup for metals: geopolitics and energy prices are supportive, but elevated sovereign yields remain the dominant restraint.