Chart of the Week: Will the gold price continue to fall? - Morningstar Australia

AI desk brief

Gold retreated through most of the quarter on softer investment demand, with ETF flows identified as the main driver of volatility, though it has recently recovered to about USD 4,400/oz and ended modestly lower. Morningstar says gold remains more than double its estimated long-run cost support, helped by tariff concerns, deteriorating Western fiscal balances, geopolitical tensions and a weaker USD, even as rising real rates weigh on investor demand.

The note says jewelry demand is a headwind at current prices, while central bank buying is trending lower but still elevated. Elevated prices should also encourage recycled supply, reopens at closed mines and new mine developments, which could gradually push prices back toward long-run marginal cost.