Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD dips below $4,400 as Middle East tensions grow - Mitrade

AI desk brief

Gold (XAU/USD) is slipping back below $4,400 despite a risk-off bid from escalating Middle East tensions, with the pair last seen at $4,394 after failing to hold above the 200-day SMA near $4,536. The article flags a near-term bearish technical set-up: momentum is soft, the RSI is around 50, MACD is negative, and the $4,300-$4,285 zone is the key support band/neckline of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern.

The macro backdrop is split. Geopolitical risk is supporting haven demand, but Brent’s push above $97/bbl and the threat of $100 oil is stoking inflation concerns and the prospect of more restrictive central-bank policy. That rate narrative is a headwind for gold, especially after last week’s highs in the $4,500 area were rejected.

Near term, traders will watch whether $4,370 (Friday’s low) gives way first, then $4,300-$4,285. A break below that zone would likely trigger deeper downside into a larger technical correction, while a move back above $4,510-$4,536 would be needed to neutralize the bearish structure and reopen the path toward the August 25 high just below $4,700.