Gold declines to near $4,400 as robust US jobs data lifts Fed hike odds - Mitrade

AI desk brief

Gold is under pressure near $4,410/oz in early Asian trade as a stronger-than-expected US August payrolls report lifted Treasury yields and revived odds of a September Fed rate hike. NFP rose 162k versus 56k expected, unemployment stayed at 4.1%, and CME FedWatch now prices a 60% chance of a hike next week, up from 50% before Friday’s data.

Ole Hansen at Saxo said gold and silver have sold off alongside lower bond prices after the jobs surprise reinforced expectations for a 16 September move. Societe Generale, however, argues gold has entered a more durable phase of its 2026 bull run, driven less by speculative momentum and more by structural conviction across physical, futures and options markets. UOB also flagged the metal’s sensitivity to incoming macro data after gold fell more than 0.9% last Friday to $4,429.98/oz.

Near term, focus shifts to US PPI and CPI later this week. Hot inflation would strengthen the case for another hike, support the USD, and keep pressure on non-yielding bullion; a softer read would help gold by reviving hold expectations and easing the dollar. Technically, XAU/USD is consolidating between the 20-day and 100-day SMAs, with resistance around $4,465 and $4,675, while support sits near $4,350 and then $4,260 if selling deepens.