Gold Price Forecast: Dollar Near Key Support as Gold Reclaims $4,500 — Can XAU/USD Break Higher? - Mitrade

AI desk brief

Spot gold rebounded more than 2% on Sept. 3, with XAU/USD briefly back toward the US$4,500 area after a weaker dollar, lower Treasury yields and easing expectations for a September Fed hike. Reuters cited spot gold at US$4,488.54 and US gold futures at US$4,539.90, reversing part of the prior session’s >2% slide driven by stronger yields and dollar strength.

The immediate catalyst was Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said he could support holding rates steady at the September meeting if disinflation continues. The article says market-implied odds of a September rate hike fell from roughly 63% to around 50%, which lowered the opportunity cost of holding bullion. It also notes that traders are now focusing on the August CPI print and the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls release for the next policy repricing.

Near term, gold looks sensitive to the same chain of drivers: Fed expectations, Treasury yields, then the dollar. A softer USD and retreating real yields should keep bullion bid, while any upside surprise in labor or inflation data could quickly unwind the rebound. The article frames US$4,500 as the key level to reclaim decisively; failure there leaves gold vulnerable to another reversal if rate-hike bets firm again.