Gold Price Forecast: Will Gold Keep Falling After Dropping Below $4,300 as US-Iran Conflict Drives Up Oil Prices? - tradingkey.com

AI desk brief

Gold was hit hard in Asian trade, with XAUUSD trading down nearly 9% from last week’s peak near $4,700 and probing an intraday low of $4,282.45 before recovering toward $4,320. The immediate drivers are firmer U.S. rate-hike expectations, a stronger dollar, and the jump in Treasury yields, with the 10-year briefly reaching around 4.81% — its highest since November 2023 — raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

The article also ties the move to the U.S.-Iran conflict, which has pushed oil sharply higher and reinforced inflation concerns. WTI closed Tuesday up 5.09% at $90.69 and Brent rose 4.98% to $95.20, both at roughly five-week closing highs. That backdrop has revived concerns that the Fed could stay hawkish longer, especially after hawkish signals attributed to Fed Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole.

Near term, the key technical level is $4,292 Fibonacci support; a break there opens downside toward $4,200. For now, the market is watching U.S. labor data — ADP and Friday payrolls — as the next catalyst. A resilient jobs print would likely keep yields and the dollar elevated and pressure gold further, while a weaker report could trigger a pullback in real yields and give bullion relief.