Gold Has Rallied Into October in 13 of the Last 15 Years | Phil Streible

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Phil Streible says the recent selloff in gold looks like a correction rather than a trend change: after a 600-point run, a 150-point pullback is manageable, and the key line in the sand is the Aug. 18 low. He argues the drop after Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech and the continued strength in the dollar left gold vulnerable, while silver stalled at its 100-day moving average and gold tested its 200-day. Streible’s macro view is bullish medium term because he thinks the Fed is using the wrong tool for the wrong problem. In his view, tariff shocks, Iranian strikes and Black Sea port attacks are supply-side inflation shocks that higher rates cannot fix, and a September hike would eventually need to be undone — the point at which gold could accelerate higher. He also flags silver’s structural deficit, noting roughly 70% of supply comes as a byproduct of base-metal mining, which limits how quickly supply can respond. Near term, he sees seasonality favoring gold into year-end and says the sector is setting up for renewed upside if the dollar cools and gold holds the August low. He also sketches relative-value ideas: he would prefer to be long gold and silver versus short platinum and palladium, and he discusses using ATR-based sizing for silver positions, implying elevated volatility but also tradable momentum if support levels hold.