Expert sets gold price for 2030 - Finbold

AI desk brief

Gold is trading around $4,444/oz after a strong August rebound, but a TradingShot cycle analysis shared on TradingView argues the market may already be in the early stage of a new multi-year bear cycle. The model sees gold falling to roughly $3,000-$3,200/oz by 2030, implying a 28%-33% drop from current levels if historical cycle patterns repeat.

The call is based on a long-run review of gold going back to 1970, which the analyst says shows a recurring pattern of about 10 to 10.5 years of bull-market gains followed by 4.2 to 5 years of bear-market declines. The latest peak above $5,500 on Jan. 29, 2026 is treated as the start of the current correction, with a potential cycle bottom around March 2030 in the minimum case or as late as December 2030 if the pattern extends. The analysis also points to prior bear-market lows in 1985 and 2015 forming near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement, with the long-term 200-month moving average acting as additional support.

For traders, the near-term setup remains mixed: the article acknowledges continuing structural support from central bank buying, debt and currency-debasement concerns, and geopolitical risk, but flags higher interest rates and firmer yields as the key downside risk for non-yielding gold. That makes Fed guidance and real-yield moves the immediate catalyst, while the cycle thesis is more relevant for longer-dated positioning than short-term price action.