Gold News: Gold Price Breaks 200-Day MA as Warsh Revives September Hike Bets - FXEmpire

AI desk brief

Gold sold off hard after Warsh used Jackson Hole to revive September Fed hike bets, driving spot XAUUSD down 3.0% to $4,462.24 and taking price below the 200-day moving average at $4,526.24. The move erased the prior week’s Treasury-buyback rally, with gold falling from Tuesday’s $4,697 to Friday’s $4,462, a $235 drop in four sessions.

The catalyst was a sharper hawkish repricing across rates and FX: September hike odds jumped from 35% to 61.5%, the dollar index rose 0.35% to 99.46, and the front end led the selloff with 2-year yields up more than 10 bp to 4.352%. The article also flags India discount deterioration as local demand weakens, adding a physical headwind on top of the macro-driven liquidation.

Technically, the key near-term battle is around the $4,504-$4,459 retracement zone. A clean hold there could invite a bounce back toward the 200-day MA at $4,526.24, but a break below $4,458.52 opens downside toward $4,320-$4,231 and then the 50-day MA near $4,206.66. For now, the market is trading as if the Fed is less tolerant of inflation overshoots, which keeps real-yield and USD pressure bearish for bullion into the September 16 meeting.