Gold Price Predictions: Why Morgan Stanley Sees Gold Prices Breaking Above $5,000 in 2027 - Shanghai Metals Market

AI desk brief

Spot gold is holding around $4,700/oz after a sharp August run, with the metal up more than 17% month-to-date and briefly trading above $4,500 after softer U.S. data, fading Fed hike odds, a weaker dollar and Treasury buyback-driven yield declines. Morgan Stanley now sees scope for gold to break above $5,000/oz in 2027, having already had its prior Q4 target of $4,450/oz reached ahead of schedule.

The bank’s bullish case rests on a pivot in policy expectations and renewed investment demand: gold ETFs reportedly added 70 tonnes in July/August after 93 tonnes of outflows in May/June, while central-bank buying remains supportive. Morgan Stanley cites China’s 60-tonne YTD addition and Poland’s 82-tonne purchase, which lifted holdings to 632 tonnes, close to a 700-tonne target. The note also argues gold is increasingly pricing U.S. fiscal concerns, not just real-yield moves.

Near term, the setup remains constructive but choppy: profit-taking has already caused pullbacks, and sticky inflation, elevated energy prices and any rebound in yields could interrupt the trend. Still, with the Fed expected to stay on hold through the rest of 2026 and ETF/central-bank flows improving, dips are likely to attract buying unless the dollar or real yields materially reverse.