Trump hails Iran deal but conflict continues to cast long shadow over global economy

Trump’s Iran deal and the easing in oil below $80/bbl initially improved risk sentiment, but the conflict remains a live macro shock: Hormuz disruptions, higher fuel costs and still-elevated inflation are forcing markets to reassess the path for rates. For precious metals, the key takeaway is that the war is no longer a clean disinflation/risk-off trade; instead, it is feeding a higher-inflation, higher-rate backdrop that can cap gold on real-yield expectations even as geopolitical risk keeps a floor under safe-haven demand. The article says US inflation has surged to 4.2%, with American drivers paying about $1/gal more than a year ago. TS Lombard’s Dario Perkins argued the Fed may ultimately need to tighten more than the market expects, potentially raising rates as much as four times to 4.5%-5% by end-next year. In Europe, the ECB has already resumed hikes, while UK inflation is 2.8% and expected to rise further. That combination matters for metals: sticky inflation tends to support bullion structurally, but any renewed repricing toward higher policy rates/real yields would be a headwind for XAU and, to a lesser extent, silver and platinum. Near term, the main catalyst is whether Iran/US talks hold and whether Hormuz reopens fully. If oil supply normalizes and inflation fears ease, gold may lose some geopolitical bid. If the ceasefire collapses or shipping is disrupted again, haven flows into gold could reappear quickly. For now the signal is mixed: supportive geopolitical risk premium, but a potentially less-friendly rate backdrop if central banks are forced to stay tighter for longer.